Large parts of the Global South are adopting cleantech more quickly than richer countries, but significant policy changes are still required to speed up progress, a new analysis concludes.
As the United Nations COP29 climate summit approaches, analysts from RMI take a “fresh look” at how the energy transition is unfolding in regions like Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
“One-fifth of the Global South, including countries like Brazil, Morocco, Namibia, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Vietnam, has already surpassed the Global North in the share of solar and wind power used for electricity generation or in final energy consumption,” the analysts write, adding that the desire for affordable energy is driving change in many of these jurisdictions.
And it’s happening despite a later start. China is excluded from the analysis since it leads the world in renewables growth, surpassing both Europe and the United States. However, some countries in Latin America have even outperformed China in the share of electricity supplied by wind and solar.
The analysts also find that vocal petrostates such as Nigeria and Venezuela contribute only 5% of the Global South’s primary energy demand.
About 73% of the Global South is positioned in the “sweet spot of change,” the analysts conclude, [pdf] based on factors like fossil fuel imports, energy demand, income, and renewables availability.
In several countries, energy demand is currently low, but interest in expanding energy systems is growing, paving the way for clean energy investment. Many other developing countries are energy importers seeking self-sufficiency. Despite accounting for 60% of the global population, the Global South produces only 20% of fossil fuels, making it a net importer. Meanwhile, the region benefits from an abundance of natural resources essential for energy technologies, holding 70% of the world’s solar and wind resources and 50% of critical minerals, as well as mid-to-high levels of capital for energy investments.
These factors are not driving as much change in oil exporting countries and low-income nations, yet an overall 61% of the Global South has passed the “renewables tipping point” that indicates a shift away from fossil fuels.
But more action is needed to speed up change, the analysts write. This includes reforming domestic policies, restructuring development banks, and targeting finance and technology transfer to “poor and vulnerable countries.”
“As COP29 approaches, now is the time for countries’ policies to reflect the new economic reality of cleantech,” the report states.
In another recent report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that global renewables deployment is progressing faster than anticipated, but emerging and developing markets still face choke points like long permitting timelines, grid connection wait times, and high financing costs. Earlier this year, the IEA reported on the anticipated scale of clean energy investment in 2024, cautioning of imbalances and shortfalls in allocation to different regions.
“The rise in clean energy spending is underpinned by strong economics, by continued cost reductions, and by considerations of energy security,” Executive Director Fatih Birol said in June. “But there is a strong element of industrial policy, too, as major economies compete for advantage in new clean energy supply chains.”
“More must be done to ensure that investment reaches the places where it is needed most, in particular the developing economies where access to affordable, sustainable, and secure energy is severely lacking today.”
