Canada should aim to reduce its climate pollution 50 to 55% from 2005 levels by 2035 and develop a carbon budget for its future emissions to keep pace with the “ambitious climate goals of its G7 partners,” the country’s Net Zero Advisory Body (NZAB) concludes in a report issued September 26.
The carbon budget, a tool already in use in other countries, would help Canada track the cumulative impacts of its climate-related policy decisions and the “consequences of delayed action,” the NZAB said in a release.
“The 2035 target is a crucial milestone on Canada’s pathway to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050,” said NZAB co-chair Sarah Houde, co-founder and CEO of Montreal-based MileBox. “Our efforts to mitigate climate change over the next decade will be critical to setting Canada up for success on our pathway to net-zero.”
While Canada has made “significant progress” on emission reductions in the eight years since the Paris climate agreement was signed, “more aggressive and sustained action is necessary to reach our 2030 emissions target and to shift to a long-term net-zero pathway,” said NZAB co-chair and University of British Columbia climate scientist Simon Donner. “Our advice focuses on how to finish what has been started, improve what exists, and then implement new policies.”
The NZAB release consists of two reports, the first on how to close the gap between the country’s current climate performance and its 2030 emission reduction target, the second on how to set a more ambitious 2035 target.
The first of the two warns that Canada will fall short of its 2030 goal of achieving a 40 to 45% emissions cut, “even with ideal implementation”, in the absence of “more aggressive and sustained action”. It identifies “significant opportunities” to close the gap, including:
- Finalizing measures the government has already announced, including the clean economy investment tax credits, the oil and gas emissions cap, the Clean Electricity Regulations, Canada’s Green Buildings Strategy, new regulations for landfill methane, a sales standard for medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicle sales, and emissions standards for light- and heavy-duty vehicles post-2026;
- Addressing “negative interactions” in the emissions cap and the Clean Electricity Regulations that “could vastly increase the number of credits available in large emitter trading systems” for oil and gas, electricity, and heavy industry;
- Strengthening the country’s existing industrial carbon pricing system;
- Pushing for deeper emission reductions in oil and gas by either toughening up the oil and gas emissions cap or introducing tighter performance standards for industrial carbon pricing;
- Pursuing a suite of new measures to further reduce emissions, while holding Canadians’ affordability concerns “paramount”.
An analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) shows already-announced policies delivering two-thirds of the emission reductions the country has promised by 2030.
The NZAB report stresses that the federal government won’t be able to hit its 2030 target unassisted. “All of Canadian society has a role to play in helping Canada to reduce its GHG emissions,” it states. “Beyond the federal government, provinces, territories, municipalities, Indigenous governing bodies, experts, including Indigenous Knowledge Holders and scientists, the private sector, and civil society all have important roles in bringing Canadians along to realize our 2030 and 2050 decarbonization goals.”
The second report declares the 2035 emission reduction target a “crucial milestone on Canada’s pathway to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050” that will have to navigate at least two major influences: it will be “compared to other countries and large emitters”, while having to factor in affordability concerns and the time it takes to meet ambitious targets.
“Climate policy is also a competitiveness issue and challenge,” the report states. “As decarbonizing technologies become increasingly cost competitive and widespread, Canada cannot afford to be left behind. It is critical that we develop the skills and technologies to succeed in a low-carbon economy. Having ambitious targets, policies, and increasing investment in those technologies are key steps in that direction.”
It recommends:
- Setting a domestic budget of 10,198 to 11,034 megatonnes of cumulative carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) that Canada can allow itself to emit through 2050 (in a preliminary estimate last week, the CCI placed Canada’s 2023 emissions at 702 Mt, suggesting a total of almost 19,000 Mt over the next 27 years with no further reductions);
- Adopting a 50 to 55% emissions reduction target by 2035;
- Taking additional measures to address the climate pollution that overshoots Canada’s fair share of the emissions that can still occur globally while holding average global warming to 1.5°C.
“Purposeful action, including on negative emissions, is essential given the recommended target range,” the NZAB says. The release also stresses “the importance of thinking about climate objectives in the larger environmental context of biodiversity and human health preservation, and especially to prevent damaging impact transfers that could occur along our race to net-zero.”
Globe and Mail climate columnist Adam Radwanski says the NZAB produced its 2035 recommendations at the request of Environment and Climate Minister Steven Guilbeault. Now, the report “adds to the pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, as it attempts to balance its ambitions to meet international climate responsibilities with domestic realities—including economic and affordability concerns, skepticism about the ability to achieve current emissions targets let alone loftier ones, and polls showing a big lead for an opposition Conservative Party promising to scrap climate measures currently in place.”
Donner said the 50 to 55% target was the result of the Advisory Body’s search for a balance between “being ambitious and being technically feasible” with its recommendation. He said NZAB members opted against a higher threshold because of the strain they thought it would place on some parts of the country.
