German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is facing an unexpected election early next year after the collapse of his coalition government, a development that could reshape the country’s climate policy direction.
Amid the upheaval, the chancellor will not travel to the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, a government spokesperson told Politico last week. News broke of a political collapse in Germany following Scholz’s dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner over disagreements on the economy, especially the 2025 budget and climate and energy policies.
Lindner’s dismissal ended the coalition government, which had included Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), Lindner’s pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the environment-focused Greens. The FDP withdrew from the coalition after Lindner’s ouster, leaving the government unable to function, reports The New York Times.
The collapse has implications for the country’s climate policy, which in August, received an “insufficient” rating from Climate Action Tracker, partly because the country’s coalition was too divided to take “comprehensive action across all sectors.” Lindner’s disagreement with climate and energy policies, detailed in a leaked policy paper he authored, contributed to the friction that broke the government, writes Clean Energy Wire.
“The paper appears to position the FDP apart from its coalition,” Clean Energy Wire says. “Amongst other things, the party calls for relaxing a wide range of emissions reduction laws, reducing social security payments, lowering taxes, and doing away with Germany’s ‘unique path’ regarding climate policy, demands that are hardly reconcilable with core positions of the SPD and the Greens.”
The coming election is an opportunity for Germany to vote in a more decisive government, either for or against more ambitious climate action. A current front-runner for Scholz’s position is the Conservative opposition leader, Friedrich Merz, who “rejects environmentalism,” according to The Conversation.
Merz’s party—the Christian Democratic Union—was once headed by Angela Merkel, who set ambitious climate targets during her time as chancellor. But the party has since opposed regulatory efforts to phase out combustion engine cars and fossil-fuelled heating, maintaining that it supports a market-driven approach, Clean Energy Wire writes.
The government’s collapse casts uncertainty on several climate and energy plans, including an act that facilitates tenders for hydrogen-ready gas facilities, an effort to reform the electricity market for expanded renewable energy capacity, a carbon management strategy, a climate adaptation strategy, and measures for biomass and geothermal energy.
Scholz is expected to call a parliamentary vote of confidence on January 15, which would kickstart the next election cycle and give the government 60 days to hold an election. That plan places the vote in early March, but some stakeholders—including Merz, and Kerstin Andreae, head of Germany’s largest utility association—are calling for a more immediate snap election to ensure stability in the coming months.
The uncertainty following Lindner’s dismissal coincides with last week’s re-election of former president Donald Trump in the U.S. That result is placing the future of international climate efforts in doubt just as countries are meeting to negotiate climate commitments in Azerbaijan. Though Scholz himself is not attending, other German delegates’ attendance is unlikely to be affected by the collapse, Clean Energy Wire says.
Leaders of several other countries are also skipping the COP, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, U.S. President Joe Biden, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, reports Politico.
