British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan have met their targets for reducing methane emissions ahead of schedule, though measurement methods are still evolving to correct under-reporting by the oil and gas industry.
All three provinces met their 2025 methane reduction targets from upstream oil and gas as early as 2022, finds new analysis by 440 Megatonnes. They achieved this through stricter regulations and improved leak detection, among other measures.
Increasingly a global climate priority, methane is a major contributor to Canada’s carbon pollution, accounting for 17% of the national total. Almost half of that amount, 48%, is unintended or uncontrolled methane releases from oil and gas systems—pipes, tanks, and valves—also known as fugitive emissions.
The provinces’ progress on curtailing these leaks and releases follows commitments to align with the Federal Methane Regulations introduced in 2018, which set targets for reducing oil and gas sector emissions by 40 to 45% below 2012 levels by 2025. The three provinces developed equivalency agreements that committed them to reducing methane emissions by that same percentage; however, for B.C. and Alberta the base year was 2014, while Saskatchewan’s was 2015.
440 Megatonnes lauds efforts at the provincial level, including technology-based regulations aligned with federal measures, incentives for methane measurement and mitigation research, and further incentives for methane reductions. It adds that the federal government helped, with financial and technical support and improved methane leak measurement methodologies.
As this progress was being made, the methane accounting used in Canada’s official emissions inventory was updated, after studies showed that earlier methods led to undercounting the actual amounts. Methane emissions were being quantified using “bottom-up” reporting from oil and gas companies, which was based on inaccurate formulas instead of direct measurements, said Amanda Bryant, senior oil and gas analyst at the Pembina Institute.
The most recent inventory incorporates “top-down” atmospheric methane measurements, with independent analyses to show that this method has helped close the reporting gap.
“That doesn’t mean the new inventory represents true emissions with 100% certainty,” Bryant told The Energy Mix, adding that there is always some uncertainty when quantifying methane emissions.
The underlying problem with the inventory—that it is partly based on industry underestimates—still hasn’t been fully addressed. Reporting requirements need to move away from estimation toward more measurement, and should include data from third-party surveys to ensure accuracy, Bryant said.
“However, it is certainly the case that the current national inventory is the most credible and scientifically sound official inventory to date.”
The method changes revealed a larger footprint for the oil and gas industry, with fugitive methane emissions increasing by 12 megatonnes (27%) to 19 megatonnes (32%) per year from 1990 to 2022, writes 440 Megatonnes. Despite the increase, the three provinces met their targets, which were based on percentage reductions rather than absolute amounts.
Bryant says there are still ways that Canada can improve its methane measurements, including using more technologies that directly measure and monitor emissions. All data should be transparent and shared with the public so that communities, investors, and other stakeholders can see how companies are dealing with their upstream emissions.
“It’s important to take a step back and consider why accurate data on methane emissions is so important,” said Bryant. “In short, you cannot reduce emissions effectively or track your progress in reducing them if you don’t know the full extent of the problem.”
