Rising renewables have pushed down gas demand in the European Union for five years straight, finds a new report by energy think tank Ember.
The switch to clean power generation played a major role in reducing overall gas demand by about 20% since 2021—that is, since the gas crisis was triggered by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Chris Rosslowe, Ember senior energy and climate data analyst, told The Energy Mix.
“We estimate around a third of this reduction is due to the transition to clean power.”
Ember’s latest European Electricity Review shows a steadily progressing energy transition across the EU’s 27 member countries. In 2024, gas demand for electricity generation continued to fall in line with previous years, solar outpaced coal for the first time, and new wind and solar installations helped avoid €59 billion (around C$88.5 billion) in fossil fuel import costs since 2019.
Wind power output stayed about the same as 2023, but notable growth in solar and hydropower—which benefitted from a year of high rainfall—pushed renewables to account for 47% of EU power generation.
Taken along with an increase in nuclear generation, mostly from France, non-emitting sources contributed 71% of EU electricity generation. Fossil generation dropped 9% from 2023 despite a 1% increase in demand and a rise in energy exports to non-EU countries. Nuclear power remained the top energy source, followed by wind, then gas.
The start of the five-year drop in gas demand aligns with the adoption of the European Green Deal in 2020, writes Ember. Notably, its analysis only considered energy sources in the power sector, and did not evaluate fuels for other energy needs like heating.
Rosslowe said trends outlined in the report are likely to continue in future years, unaffected by political posturing—for instance Donald Trump’s calls for the bloc to import more gas—because of the “significant momentum” behind the transition to clean power in the region. Rising EU imports of Russian LNG follow a switch away from pipeline gas, and do not reflect increasing demand.
Pledges by German opposition leader Friedrich Merz to build 50 gas-fired power plants, if he is elected chancellor in national elections Feb. 23, are also unlikely to shift the balance. Merz’s plans come after Germany recently shuttered its last nuclear plants—amid weather-induced lulls in wind power, which Merz calls “ugly” “transition energy.”
But Germany has pledged to source 80% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, and is among the G7 countries that have committed to fully or predominantly decarbonize their power systems by 2035, Rosslowe says.
“With these plans in mind, it’s clear that the role of these new gas plants—if they get built—will be to provide capacity in a supporting role to renewables, rather than providing bulk generation,” indicating gas consumption will still be limited, Rosslowe said.
