Decentralizing energy generation is the key to securing Ukraine’s electricity supply before winter as Russian forces continue pounding the country’s grid, a new report says.
“Despite the high investment risks, the construction of a more decentralized system has begun, increasing resilience to attack and laying the groundwork for a distinctive longer-term transition,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in a report on Ukraine’s energy security and the coming winter.
“In contrast with other countries, where decentralization has been driven by sustainability concerns, the clear driver in Ukraine is energy security.”
The IEA says Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have increased in intensity: “A concerted attack in late August 2024, for example, involved more than 200 missiles and drones.” The attack caused about eight million households to suddenly lose power.
The recent intensity follows constant Russian attacks over the past two years that have occupied, destroyed, or damaged about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity, including the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that supplied about a quarter of the country’s electrical supply before 2022. Roughly half of large network substations have been damaged in attacks by missiles and drones.
In these cases, the centralized energy system that generated electricity from large-scale sources like coal, gas, and nuclear power created a vulnerability in Ukraine’s energy supply, since a single attack could halt the energy supply for a large number of people. Ukraine tried to address this early in the invasion by issuing guidance to use decentralized generation—such as small modular gas turbines and rooftop solar with storage—in administrative buildings, hospitals, schools, households, and businesses.
Those instruction resulted in almost 1,500 megawatts of consumer-installed solar PV (photovoltaics) by the beginning of 2024, the IEA reports.
But the country still does not have enough energy to meet its needs, and the coming winter will be a “critical test,” the report warns. Though maintaining the energy supply was already challenging in the summer, the winter will be especially difficult with lower temperatures and longer nights.
To secure Ukraine’s energy supply, increasing and decentralizing power supply is one action item among nine others the IEA recommends, both to address short-term needs and, where possible, implement “structural changes that will increase Ukraine’s resilience over time.”
Other recommendations seek to protect infrastructure in the country by bolstering infrastructure’s physical and cyber security, facilitating speedy delivery of equipment and parts, engaging consumers in energy saving and demand response, preparing backup options for heating, and building up natural gas stores.
IEA also recommends measures to increase international energy supply by expanding electricity transmission and gas imports from the EU and nearby Moldova, and to lay the groundwork for a modern, market-based energy system in Ukraine that is “well integrated with the EU system.”
“The immediate priority for action must be to mitigate the extreme risks over the 2024-25 winter season,” the report says. “But it will also be vital to start actions that have a longer lead time and to integrate, wherever possible, a vision for a new Ukrainian energy system into the response.”
