The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) would have to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 11% per year to hit its 2030 target after seeing total climate pollution rise 2% to 54.5 megatonnes in 2023, The Atmospheric Fund reports this week.
“When solutions are applied, they get results,” TAF declares in an overview of its latest emissions inventory report. But “except for a slight decline in the building sector, all other sectors showed an increase in emissions, underscoring the need for strong climate action across the board from all levels of government, businesses, and individuals.”
While per capita emissions fell in Durham, Halton, and Peel Regions, as well as Toronto, total climate pollution rose in every part of the GTHA, with regional increases ranging from 0.8% in Halton to 2.9% in Hamilton. Buildings accounted for 45% of total emissions in 2023, followed by transportation at 37%, industry at 14%, waste at 3%, and agriculture at 1%.
The emissions inventory reports good progress on mandatory green development standards and vehicle electrification, with EV strategies in place in all six GTHA regions. Building retrofits are showing progress, with some new pilot projects in place, but all regions except the City of Toronto need help establishing performance standards for existing buildings.
Electricity generation and transportation each tell a different story. Across the GTHA, TAF’s analysis shows a million-tonne emission reduction being offset by increases of 890,000 tonnes each in electricity and transportation. The rise in electricity traces back to a provincial power grid that “became 30% more carbon intensive with the increased mix of natural gas generation, eroding many of the efficiency gains over the last several years.” That increase in climate pollution “undermines the overall electrification pathway to decarbonizing buildings and transportation.”
On the whole, “emissions are moving in the wrong direction, and the clock is ticking,” writes Bryan Purcell, TAF’s vice-president of policy and programs. “It’s time to move past declarations and strategies and focus on accelerating implementation of climate action at all levels and in all sectors. We can and need to demonstrate how climate actions can also address affordability, housing, and mobility concerns.”
TAF calls on all levels of government to “apply a multi-solving climate lens” to public policy priorities like health and affordable housing, prohibit all new fossil fuel infrastructure, and structure public funding so that it “crowds in” private capital. The report urges the province to develop clean electricity supplies at the utility and local scales, modernize the Ontario Building Code, and invest strategically to speed up electric vehicle adoption.
