The lethal heatwave that locked down across the Mediterranean in mid-July would have been “virtually impossible” without anthropogenic climate change, says a new analysis from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network.
The analysis further found that searing temperatures in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Morocco would have been between 2.5°C and 3.3°C cooler were humans not cooking the planet, primarily by burning fossil fuels.
The heatwave, which began in Eastern Europe at the beginning of July, “occurred after 13 months of extreme heat globally, with each of the last 13 months being the hottest ever recorded,” notes the WWA.
June marked the “12th month in a row that global mean temperatures have been 1.5℃ above pre-industrial temperatures.” By the official first day of summer in the northern hemisphere, thousands were already known to have died from heat-related causes, including some 1,300 in Saudi Arabia during the hajj pilgrimage, over a hundred in Mexico, and dozens in Europe.
Following soon after the latest WWA analysis, an update from the World Health Organization confirmed heat as the leading cause of climate-related death in Europe, as well as Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan. Heat now claims more than 175,000 lives annually in the WHO’s European Region, reports the CBC News.
While the latest report from the WWA relies on observational data, without extrapolation from climate models, it notes that the results are “very similar to the studies published in 2023 that analysed heatwaves in the same region and included climate models.”
Common ground between the observed changes in July 2024 and July 2023 “are a good indicator of how climate change is affecting extreme heat in the Mediterranean,” including the reality that extreme heat events like the one just past “are no longer rare.”
“Similar heatwaves affecting Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Morocco are now expected to occur on average about once every 10 years in today’s climate that has been warmed by 1.3°C due to human-induced climate change,” writes the WWA.
Should humanity fail to shift “rapidly” away from fossil fuel combustion “these events will become hotter, more frequent, and longer-lasting.” And failure to prioritize heat adaptation will mean more intense suffering, and more deaths, with the most vulnerable most exposed to risk.
At least 21 people were known to have died of heat-related causes in Morocco last month when temperatures breached 48℃. Reporting delays and poor record-keeping in Morocco and elsewhere in the region mean that dozens or even hundreds more “likely” died from heat stress during the July heatwave, but haven’t yet been counted in the total, adds WWA.
The WHO said the past two decades have seen a 30% increase in global heat-related deaths, with older adults (especially those living alone), and people with underlying health conditions at particular risk.
“Temperature extremes exacerbate chronic conditions, including cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebro-vascular diseases, mental health, and diabetes-related conditions. Extreme heat is a problem particularly for elderly people, especially those living alone. It can also place an additional burden on pregnant women,” Hans Kluge, WHO’s Europe director, said in a statement.
European policymakers are beginning to pay attention, with heat action plans “increasingly being implemented across the region,” WWA says.
But “intersecting trends of climate change, population ageing, and urbanization” mean that speed is of the essence, especially in urban centres.
“Cities are hot-spots for heat risk, so urban planning needs to focus on measures to reduce the urban heat island effect, such as increasing cooling green and blue spaces,” writes WWA.
While the combustion of fossil fuels is the primary driver of the climate crisis, deforestation and animal agriculture are also significantly implicated, writes veteran climate journalist Emily Atkin, in an edition of her HEATED newsletter pegged to the sweltering temperatures currently being endured by athletes and spectators at the Olympic Games.
Citing the latest IPCC research, Atkin notes that while fossil fuel combustion contributes a whopping 75% of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions, agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) account for “anywhere from 13 to 20%” of annual global anthropogenic CO2.
And within the AFOLU category, the combination of deforestation and beef production has an outsized carbon footprint. Atkin adds: “Forty-five percent of emissions come from deforestation, and 41% of global deforestation comes from beef production.”
