Comments on: Analyst Sees Oil and Gas Running Short of Cash as IEA Releases Energy Investment Update

By: Mitchell Beer

Mitchell Beer — Sat, 03 Jun 2023 21:58:20 +0000

There are solid arguments back and forth on each of the points you raise (I’m guessing you probably know that), but I’m going to keep this relatively short and invite you to scan our archive for more.

With 40%+ of respondents to various surveys reporting climate despair, I think hope and optimism absolutely have to be part of the conversation. But only realistic hope. The analysis we see from the IEA and others is based on actual experience and future modelling — so one way or another, it’s data, not groundless optimism. If anything, as Simon Evans of Carbon Brief is pointing out, the IEA routinely understates the potential speed and breadth of the transition.

There’s no guarantee that we’re going to win on the climate and energy transition, but we’re guaranteed to lose if we assume all is lost. So if the balance of probabilities is that a given set of solutions (or a given set of inputs, like your inference that solar is a silver bullet rather than one tool in the toolbox) won’t work, it just means we have to come up with something that will.

By: Steven Manders

Steven Manders — Sat, 03 Jun 2023 21:17:17 +0000

The world population is growing by a half billion people every 7 years. That is equal to the entire population of North America and they are working hard to enjoy the life style that we enjoy with lots of energy. That is also the main reason for mass migration these days, in addition to climate change. So for all our efforts to go green, which can never be total, we are destined to lose the battle in the end when there are billions of more people using energy. Solar energy becomes a land use issue, not a technical or economic issue. Where can England build enough solar collectors for 50 million people with a 7 hour long day that is rainy winter day for 4 months straight. Seasonal variations such as in a Canadian winter make this even more problematic. You will never build a battery big enough and cheap enough to store a lot of power in the summer, and discharge it only once in the winter. This is often over looked, which is why we are staring at a disaster in the end. Sorry, but that is what will happen. Go ahead, figure this out quantitatively. Leave hope and optimism out of it, Quantify it.