A long-running drought in the Horn of Africa is expected to continue for the next three months, creating severe food insecurity that will be worse than the 2011 famine, when 260,000 people in the region died of starvation.
“The Horn of Africa may soon see its worst drought on record, as forecasts predict dry weather during this year’s March-to-May rainy season,” reports New Scientist. “This would be the sixth consecutive failed rainy season in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia since the end of 2020.”
So far, “the severe drought, along with conflict and ongoing economic pressures, has displaced more than a million people, and led to a hunger crisis for more than 20 million others,” the UK-based publication adds.
Rainfall between March and May would typically contribute up to 60% of the region’s total annual precipitation, but climate change has exaggerated water temperature disparities to intensify an El Niño-like weather pattern known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, one of the causes of the extended drought over five seasons since late 2020.
The most recent outlook of coming dry weather “confirms the fears of meteorologists and aid agencies who have warned of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe as the longest and most severe drought sweeps the region,” reports The East African.
And displacement is climbing, as millions struggle to survive amid scarce water sources, hunger, insecurity, and conflict, said Olga Sarrado Mur, spokesperson for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
“This drought is slowly killing everything,” Mahmoud Geedi Ciroobay, a nomadic pastoralist from Kalsheikh, Somaliland, told Oxfam International. First it took the land and the pastures; then it took the animals, which became weaker and eventually died. Soon, it will take the people, he said.
“People are sick with flu, diarrhoea, and measles. If they don’t get food, clean water, and medicines, they will die like their animals.”
Official famine thresholds have not yet been reached, but UN Secretary-General António Guterres said roughly 8.3 million people in the region will need humanitarian assistance this year. More than 11 million livestock that support families, many of whom are pastoralists or farmers, have already died. In January, Somalia’s UN resident coordinator said excess deaths in the country will “almost certainly” surpass those of the 2011 famine, Al Jazeera reports.
The humanitarian response has been hampered by the multiple crises plaguing the world, including the war in Ukraine and the impacts of climate change.
“These prolonged and recurrent climate change-induced droughts will further worsen other existing, mutually exacerbating humanitarian challenges in the region, including the ongoing hunger crisis, the impacts of COVID-19, and internal displacement,” said Mohammed Mukhier, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies regional director for Africa.
“We need an all-hands-on-deck approach to strengthen food systems, livelihoods, and climate resilience.”
As the drought pushes the Horn of Africa towards famine, it is also revealing the unjust distribution of climate change impacts.
“Across East Africa, we are seeing that the people who did the least to cause climate change are suffering the most from its effects,” Mercy Corps regional director for Africa Sean Granville-Ross said last fall, as world leaders were preparing to meet at the COP 27 climate summit in Egypt.
“Communities are experiencing the severe impacts of the climate crisis in many forms such as severe drought. And conversely, in some areas, flooding, changing weather patterns, and its impacts are undermining food production and traditional livelihoods.”
