Solar and wind are on track to add more than 5.4 terawatts of new capacity over the next decade, and energy storage capacity excluding pumped hydro will grow more than 600%, Wood Mackenzie projects in a new 10-year outlook released this week.
Solar is expected to lead the way, with 3.8 TW of new capacity, while wind will add 1.6 TW and storage will increase by nearly 1 TW. The increase will average 560 gigawatts per year over the decade.
“Global demand for renewables has reached unprecedented levels, driven by country-level policy targets, technology innovation, and concerns over energy security,” WoodMac’s vice president of global renewables research, Luke Lewandowski, said in a release. “Integrated power technology solutions will continue to evolve, evidenced by a significant increase in storage-paired capacity growth, despite inflation, grid constraints, and permitting challenges.”
The report shows China continuing to dominate global renewable energy markets, installing 3.5 TW of solar, wind, and grid-connected storage between 2024 and 2033. Days later, U.S.-based Global Energy Monitor reported that China is building 339 GW of utility-scale wind and solar—nearly two-thirds of the global total, and eight times more than the United States currently has under development.
“Energy storage will have the most balanced geographic footprint over the outlook due in part to its important role in helping to make renewable power available,” Lewandowski said.
• The analysis shows the “ultra-low” cost of solar modules speeding up deployments in Europe and China over the near term, until grid constraints and lower power prices shift markets. Maximizing both solar and wind capacity over the decade “will depend on additional technology developments: from expanding grid infrastructure to incentivising flexibility solutions, transportation and heating electrification,” said Juan Monge, WoodMac’s principal analyst, distributed solar PV.
The release says solar photovoltaic installations in China increased 150% last year on the strength of low module prices and tight deadlines on grid-connected solar projects. That hot growth will continue through 2026, WoodMac writes, but will run into a two-year pause before a new round of procurements drives up volume again. This year, while the U.S. installed more solar in the first three months than in all of 2019, demand for distributed solar declined by more than 50% in the Netherlands and 30% in Germany.
• Wind producers will average 91.5 GW per year of new capacity, driven again by policy support in China. New projects will face issues with permitting, financing, grid access, and supply chains between 2024 and 2026, so that some projects in North America, Western Europe, and Asia will be pushed to 2027-2033 or beyond. Offshore wind will average 39 GW per year of connected capacity over the decade, after connecting 11 GW in 2023.
The release doesn’t indicate whether WoodMac’s analysis factored recent policy changes in the United Kingdom, where the new Labour government promptly rolled back restrictions on onshore wind farms this week and is considering increased funding ahead of an offshore wind auction scheduled for August.
• Energy storage grew 162% last year, with total installations of 45 GW/110 gigawatt-hours, WoodMac writes. While impressive, the growth represents just the start for a multi-TW market as policy support in terms of tax exemption and capacity and hybrid auctions accelerate storage buildout across all regions,” said principal analyst, energy storage Anna Darmani.
WoodMac expects global energy storage capacity to hit 159 GW/358 GWh by the end of this year, then grow 633%, to 926 GW/2789 GWh, through 2033. While China will continue to lead the storage market, grid-scale projects in Europe “are booming as developers aim to seize opportunities from emerging contracted revenues.” Distributed storage installations have fallen 23% so far this year, but the outlook shows market growth resuming in 2026.
